The pair fell to around 1.1700 after the European Central Bank (ECB) left the key unchanged, a widely expected decision that provided little directional impetus for the single currency.
As expected, the main funding rate remained at 2.15% and the deposit facility rate remained unchanged at 2.0%. ECB officials reiterated their commitment to a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach.
During the subsequent press conference, President Christine Lagarde stated that policymakers did not discuss either a rate hike or a rate cut at this time. He emphasized that the ECB does not have a pre-established path for interest rates and, given the prevailing high uncertainty, cannot provide guidance on future policy measures.
At the same time, the central bank published its latest quarterly economic projections. Growth forecasts were revised upwards to 1.4% for 2025, 1.2% for 2026 and 1.4% for 2027. The inflation outlook for 2026 was also adjusted upwards, driven mainly by persistent price pressures in the services sector.
Technical analysis: EUR/USD
H4 Chart:
According to the H4 chart, the pair completed a corrective bounce to 1.1760 and is now forming bearish momentum with a target at 1.1706. A break below this level is anticipated, which would set the next local downside target at 1.1640.
This scenario is technically confirmed by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is positioned above zero but pointing sharply downward, reflecting sustained bearish momentum and the potential for further extension of the downtrend.
H1 Chart:
In the first half chart, the market has completed a first decline to 1.1705, followed by a correction to 1.1755. A second bearish impulse is currently developing towards 1.1705. A clear break below this support would indicate the possibility of a third wave of decline, pointing to the 1.1645 level as a local target.
This outlook is supported by the stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is below the 50 level and is trending firmly downwards.
Conclusion
The euro remains range-bound after a largely quiet ECB meeting, with the central bank's cautious, data-dependent stance offering little support. The technical structure points to further downside risk, and a break below immediate support at 1.1705 will likely trigger a move towards the 1.1640 area.
By RoboForex Analysis Department
Disclaimer: Any forecast contained herein is based on the author's personal opinion. This analysis cannot be considered trading advice. RoboForex assumes no responsibility for trading results based on the trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.
