Of the many ways in which Donald Trump's return to the White House promises to upend federal policy, few are more predictable or damaging than the U-turn he and his allies threaten to take on climate change and environmental protection. Fortunately, California has considerable power to counter the attack.
The first Trump administration backed down more than 100 regulations on clean air and water, toxic chemicals and wildlife conservation. He called global warming a jokehe withdrew from the Paris climate agreement, scaled back national monuments, and appointed Environmental Protection Agency administrators who helped polluters at the expense of public health.
Many experts believe that Trump's election is the last “nail in the coffin” for efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. After all, he did it. urge oil executives to finance his latest campaign in exchange for repealing environmental regulations.
Given the hostility of Republican majorities in the House, as well as the Senate and the conservative Supreme Court, toward environmental regulation, Trump's anti-environmental excesses will have to be reined in at the state and local level.
To do this, as part of his plan to undertake a second high-profile campaign against Trump's policiesGovernor Gavin Newsom has called an extraordinary session of the Legislative Assembly to prepare California legal defense. Newsom, state attorney. General Rob Bonta and other leaders in California and like-minded states can form an important bulwark against attacks on environmental protection, as they did eight years ago. Former state prosecutor. General Xavier Becerra filed more than 100 lawsuits against the first Trump administration, many of them related to environmental issues, and he won much more than he lost.
But California officials can't simply play defense. They should use the power and influence of the state to mount an environmental offensive, countering as much of the imminent damage as possible.
With Trump's team expected to eliminate President Biden's electric vehicle tax credit, among other rollbacks, California can cement its reputation for consistently committing to its climate policies. A federal retreat from those policies will make the United States less competitive by ceding leadership in clean energy technology to China, Europe and other rivals. Meanwhile, the strength and stability of the world's fifth-largest economy make it an attractive partner for innovation and investment, while the federal government oscillates chaotically. That worked in California's favor in 2019, when Ford, Honda and other automakers circumvented the Trump administration's efforts to weaken emissions standards and made a deal with Californiaciting the need for “regulatory certainty.”
“It's not that they hated Trump,” said Mary Nichols, who at the time chaired the California Air Resources Board. “They wanted relief, but they wanted to have the discussion with people driven by science and data, not ideology.”
Also bolstering California's position is a climate and energy landscape that has changed dramatically in eight years, putting Trump's agenda at odds with economic realities.
Electric vehicles are increasing globally. One in five new cars sold now runs on batteriesand 1.7 million electric vehicles are expected to be sold in the US this year, more than eight times more than at the beginning of Trump's first term. More than 40% of the country's electricity now comes from carbon-free sources, twice as much as in 2016.
The Inflation Reduction Act, the landmark climate law that Biden signed, has unleashed a boom in electric vehicle and battery manufacturing and other clean energy technologies that has disproportionately benefited red states and districts. While Trump has pledged to “rescind all unspent funds” under the law, 18 House Republicans have urged President Mike Johnson (R-La.) not to repeal his clean energy tax credits, noting that they have “spurred innovation, incentivized investment, and created good jobs in many parts of the country, including many districts represented by” republicans.
Trump may face pressure not to renege on his commitments to reduce greenhouse gas pollution from other unexpected quarters. The head of Exxon Mobil warned him against withdrawing from the Paris agreement on the grounds that the world needs a system to manage emissions.
Then there are obstacles of the self-imposed kind, including Trump's selection to head the EPA: former Rep. Lee Zeldin of New Yorkwhose main qualification seems to be loyalty. Zeldin's lack of environmental experience could impede efforts to dismantle regulations, which requires a lot of experience, legal rigor and time.
Trump's plan to purge federal ranks of career civil servants and replacing them with loyalists could further undermine their ability to roll back regulations, said Ann Carlson, a UCLA environmental law professor and former acting administrator of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. “The reality is that nothing can be done without good public officials,” he said.
Still, Trump can do real damage by going after states trying to deal with climate change. Expect new efforts to repeal California's waivers to set stricter vehicle emissions standards, several of which have not yet been approved by Biden's EPA. The state's ability to respond to climate-induced disasters is also in danger: Trump has reiterated threatened to withhold federal aid to fight the California wildfires, and the Project 2025 manual for its second term calls for the dismantling of the National Weather Service.
For its own safety, California will need creative new policies that can stand on their own. That means tough action by state regulators like the state Public Utilities Commission and Air Resources Board and local authorities like the South Coast Air Quality Management District, which has dragged its feet for years to promote stricter rules for some of Southern California's biggest polluters. the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach.
Local leaders like Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass will have to do more. So far, it has not used its control of the Port of Los Angeles to take significant steps to clean up dirty diesel emissions.
We face the threat of years of losing ground on climate at a time when we cannot afford it. It's time for state and local leaders to get to work and show that, despite a second Trump administration, environmentally responsible policy is still possible if they fight for it.
