Here is an enigma for Republican politicians facing 2026, and even 2028. What do you do when you have turned the Republican Party into an anti-establishment, populist party with the Trump brand, but now the government is controlled and things are not going very well?
A time-tested answer: ritual human sacrifice. That's why next year will be miserable for House Speaker Mike Johnson.
Let's set the stage.
In reality, the speaker's work has never been impartial. What has changed in recent decades is that more and more power has been concentrated in the president's office while, at the same time, the president is expected to defer to the president's agenda when the same party occupies the White House. This was the trend before Johnson got the job, but he has taken it to extremes we have never seen before.
Furthermore, the president's partisanship traditionally focuses on protecting the political interests of group members, not the president. And it is usually tempered by the obligation to defend the integrity of the institution. Johnson has subordinated both obligations to the White House agenda to a notable degree.
President Trump took political ownership of the economy with his “Liberation Day” nonsense in April, and Congress let him do it, even though several laws – and the Constitution itself – require Congress to play an important, even leadership, role in trade.
Johnson then kept the House in recess during the longest government shutdown in American history, at the behest of the White House, leaving the Republican Party to appear AWOL and impotent.
Now, Johnson's defenders deny that he is simply a yes-to-Trump man. Because Johnson is a team player, they say, he voices his objections and concerns behind the scenes, without wanting to challenge the president publicly. For example, Johnson has reportedly told the White House that the Republican Party has no desire to extend Obamacare premium subsidies.
But this only aggravates the problem. By quietly coordinating with the White House, there is nothing to dispel the impression that Johnson and, by extension, the entire Republican caucus, own the status quo.
Of course, being a stamp of approval for Trump and taking credit for the status quo wouldn't be a problem for Republicans if Trump's “Golden Age” speech about the economy and the country seemed true. It's not like that. Six in 10 Americans now think the country is on the right path. wrong track.
To be fair, the economy isn't doing too badly. But whatever their strengths, many Americans don't feel them. That's why “affordability” has become the mantra everywhere in Washington, except in the White House, where Trump says the economy has “never been better” and calls concerns about affordability “a problem.”joke.” Trump is literally borrowing a page from President Biden, who also told voters not to believe their lying eyes (or their wallets) on the cost of living.
Consumer sentiment, according to the University of Michigan, remains near historic lows. Trump's overall approval rating is 41%while independents and even some Trump voters They are breaking up with him. According to Gallup, less than 3 out of 10 Americans believe the economy is improving, even as Trump continues to insist that we live in a Golden Age.
But Trump's grip on the Republican Party base – and the right-wing media – remains very strong. So the last thing any of them can do is directly attack the president and his policies, particularly when the House GOP has endorsed them or meekly accepted them. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) openly challenged Trump on the Epstein files issue and soon after announced her retirement from Congress.
So what do you do when you need to prove that you are not a tool of the establishment and the author of the status quo? Find a scapegoat. And right now, Johnson could well be linked to a stake in the lions' den.
Rep. Elise Stefanik (R.N.Y.) wanted to run for governor of New York by attacking the new socialist mayor of New York City, Zohran Mamdani. But Trump just started a love fest with him in the Oval Office. Now Stefanik is aggressor Johnson. So is Rep. Nancy Mace (RS.C.), who is running for governor of South Carolina.
“I certainly think the current leadership, and specifically the president, needs to change the way they approach the job,” endangered Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Calif.) told CNN. “We need to lead the House of Representatives again.”
In a sense, this is unfair to Johnson. He got the job only because he was willing to be Trump's valet. But one of the first rules of the Trumpified Republican Party is that Trump can never fail, only he can be failed. That's why Johnson is being designated to be MAGA's scapegoat. It would take a heart of stone not to laugh.
UNKNOWN: @JonahDispatch
