For generations, foreign policy experts debated the question: ““Who lost China?” I wonder if election analysts will soon ask, “Who lost the Latinos?”
Almost exactly a year ago, President Trump scored a stunning election victory. He It wasn't the landslide that drivers claimbut it was decisive. And Trump's record success among Latino voters played a crucial role.
In 2020, Joe Biden won over Latinos for almost 2 a 1 (61% to 36%). Four years later, Trump almost tied with Vice President Kamala Harris in the Latino vote (Harris 51% to Trump 48%). He beat the Latin men by 10 points (54 to 44), a 33 points will swing in its favor starting in 2020, according to Edison Research. Coupled with an impressive showing among black men, the results led many Republicans to claim that the GOP had been reborn. “The Republican Party is now a multi-ethnic, multi-racial coalition of hard-working Americans who love their country,” said then-Sen. proclaimed Marco Rubio.
This is how Trump put it in his victory speech: “They came from… all walks of life. Union, non-union, African American, Hispanic American, Asian American, Arab American, Muslim American, we had everyone and it was beautiful. It was a historic realignment. Uniting citizens of all backgrounds around a common core of common sense. You know, we are the party of common sense.”
As usual, Trump overplayed things (Harris won eight in 10 black votes, about six in 10 Asian votes, and union voters narrowly voted for Harris). Still, Trump had every reason to celebrate. Republicans have wanted to gain ground among Black and Latino voters for decades, and Trump made significant gains.
According to all polls, the top priority for Latino voters was the economy. COVID and inflation hit working-class Latinos very hard and nostalgia for the Trump economy before the pandemic was high. Trump's immigration rhetoric focused on deporting criminal gangs and closing the border, measures that Latinos considered common sense.
The Trump campaign's most effective ad released a video of Harris pledging to support taxpayer-funded transgender surgeries for prisoners and illegal immigrants in federal detention. The slogan: “She's for them. President Trump is for you.”
The ad was controversial for being “anti-trans,” but that was not its appeal. It was the message that Harris cared too much about select ideological activist causes, not the “common sense” concerns of ordinary voters.
A year later, Latinos find themselves in a very different place than they expected. For the first time, a majority of Latinos (65%) say it is a “bad time“being Latino in the United States (although only 38% of Republican Latinos agree). Just over half say they fear for their physical safety and believe that all Latinos, regardless of their citizenship status, are targets of Trump's deportation efforts.
In the recent off-year elections, Latinos swung massively back to democratsmore than erasing The Republican Party has won for a year. It's worth noting that these voters still said their main concern was the economy, not Trump's immigration policies. Although one wonders how many voters, worried about being unfairly detained, did not risk going to the polls.
In the modern era, the biggest mistake political parties make is overestimating election results. The Trump-led Republican Party is particularly culpable. Every time Trump does something outrageous, self-indulgent, or just plain strange, his biggest supporters declare: “I voted for this.“
That may be true for them, but it's not true for the undecided voters who make up the majority and who accepted an anti-Trump flyer based on economic concerns or frustration with Democrats. When a Latino truck driver sees a video of a Latina mother arrested while picking up her child from daycare, it doesn't take a genius to understand that she's probably not saying, “This is what I voted for.” Ditto the endless pardons for corrupt cronies, the surprise demolition of the East Wing, or the tariff-driven chaos wreaking its way through the economy.
Trump's pride in the diversity of his coalition was understandable, but he did not take into account the fact that his coalition was diverse in its reasons for voting for him. Not all Trump voters are MAGA fans. The crowd that says “I voted for this” is not the majority. The rest increasingly feel that they are in favor. him No us – That's why Trump's approval rating is at “free fall.”
The Trump-led redistricting effort in Texas was based on the idea that working-class Latinos were as committed to Trump as the billionaires attending his Great Gatsby party at Mar-a-Lago. If current trends continue (still a big if), Democrats could gain Texas seats in the midterm elections. One in five Texas Latinos who voted for Trump say they regret he.
The debate over “Who lost the Latinos?” is looming on the horizon, although it will not be difficult to answer.
UNKNOWN: @JonahDispatch
