When the US Census Office recently revealed a small increase in the population of California, it was a welcome signal for some that the State was growing again. The data even showed a slightly reduced level of emigration.
Good news, right? Unfortunately, it is not good enough.
Last year's count still leaves the numbers of the State below where they were in 2020, and their growth rate is below the national average and well below that of the key competence states: comparing the census numbers from 2010 to 2024, the population of California has increased by less than 6%; In Texas, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia and Utah, the increases vary from 15% to almost 30%.
And the forecast for the future growth of California is not good, since most of the recent increase seems to have been the result of the It arises from historical immigration During the Biden years. Under President Trump, the door for many newcomers born abroad has been closed.
Although some companies and Defensores de la Immigration Rue Trump's actions, it is not as if a large number of immigrants are always an advantage. The Congress Budget Office In 2024 he observed increases in immigrants in the United States as favorable for the economy in general, but current newcomers seem to come from poorest countries, many are undocumented, and at least in the short term, that could put stress in local economies and salary salaries of salaries of salaries of salaries of salaries of salaries of wages. low -income workers who compete with them for vital space, works and social services.
Worse for California, the slight decrease in migration outside of last year is not to fix what has been a decades.
The numbers tell the story. From 2020 to 2024, the State added 934,000 international migrants, compared to a net loss of national migration of 1.46 million residents. Migration outside California has looked like the associated pattern for a long time with the states of the oxide belt. In the last 24 years, More than 4 million net migrantsA population almost like the Seattle Metropolitan Area has moved to other parts of the Nation of California.
State planners also do not see a change in the offensive. Consider that in 2007, demographers project that the population of California would grow from 36.5 million to 60 million by 2050. But today, the 2050 projection is for only 40 million Californians.
People leave or do not come to California, for rational reasons, and most of them are economical. A 2020 study showed that minorities, including AsianLatin and black people generally enjoy higher real income and properties of housing in the cities of the south or heart that in the meters of the east or west coast. These groups have been going to Dallas, Houston, Atlanta or Miami instead of California in search of opportunities. Even given the influx of immigrants to California, the population of cities born abroad in Texas, Florida and parts of Ohio, North Carolina and Tennessee have been growing faster than those of San Francisco, and the numbers of the one born in are decreasing.
For a long time a lighthouse for young and ambitious in particular, today in California is classified towards the bottom By attracting all newcomers from other parts of the country. Rather, many Young rich professionals They are migrating outside the State. In 2022, California lost more than 200,000 net migrants of 25 years or more, most of which had four -year or associated titles, while that cohort The numbers arose In Nevada, Arizona, Texas, Florida and Las Carolinas.
A recent survey identified the five best regions for young employment applicants; Four of the five were in the south. Many young people, thinking about their future lives, choose areas where family training is higherlike Utah, Texas and, again, the southern states. From 2008 to 2022, the California fertility rate (the number of children a woman will have in her life) fell from the 17th highest in the nation to 40º.
This suggests that California competitors will continue to add workers faster in the future than the Golden State. California still has the most born residents abroad in the United States and dominates in terms of accommodation, including retirees, but even this demographic group is moving forward. Last year, the Wall Street Journal reported on the IRS data by 2022 that showed that rich migrants took almost $ 24 billion of California, parallel to losses in states such as New York, Illinois and New Jersey.
For Angels who are struck in the highway traffic of bumper to bumper every day, the possibility of a diminished population may seem attractive. However, the decrease in the population and the details of who leaves or does not suggest that the State will face risky deficits in the future. Less young and energetic residents, and their children, are not a brilliant future. As John Maynard Keynes Said about the challenges of overpopulation, the “chain of the only demon can, if we are careless, only to serve to lose another even more fierce and more intractable.”
California already suffers a significant shortage of qualified workers who is expected to get worse. Companies do not invest where workers are not easily available.
The State must address the reasons for its attractions that fad. His safety and wealth creation machine for common citizens is stagnant, largely due to housing costs. Add to that reduced economic opportunity and long -term stagnation seems insured.
The youth energy that made the State the most notable region on the planet is not a fact. It is time to stop and read the data and discover how to restore the promise of our golden state once golden.
Joel Kotkin is a taxpayer of Opinion, presidential Fellow For Urban Futures at the University of Chapman and a member of senior research at the Civitas Institute of the University of Texas, Austin.
