The couple recovered at 0.6199 on Tuesday, recovering some losses. At the beginning of the week, the Australian dollar tested minimums of several years as investors distanced themselves from the most risky assets amid concerns about US tariffs in Canada, Mexico and China.
A postponement occurred when the president of the United States, Donald Trump, delayed the implementation of tariffs in Canada and Mexico for a month while negotiating with both countries. This pause improved the feeling for risk currencies, including the Australian dollar.
Key factors that influence Aud/USD
Despite this temporary relief, uncertainty remains, particularly with respect to China, Australia's largest commercial partner. The newly announced US tariffs on Chinese products enter into force today, which could have significant economic consequences. Any update related to China directly impacts the economy and monetary movements of Australia.
In addition to uncertainty, Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week. While China is interested in avoiding commercial tensions, US administration will probably use the situation strategically for its advantage. The result of these discussions could shape the feeling of risk in global markets.
In the National Front, Australian commercial balance data for December are scheduled for its launch on Thursday. This report will provide information on the health of the economy promoted by the export of Australia and could influence the policy position of the Bank of the Australian Reserve (RBA).
Aud/USD Technical Analysis
In Figure H4, Aud/USD previously formed a downward wave to 0.6088, followed by a correction at 0.6233. Today, the market is expected to start another wave down around 0.6077. You can follow a possible corrective movement at 0.6230, forming a consolidation range. If the torque breaks up from this range, another correction towards 0.6290 is possible. However, if it breaks down, the descending wave at 0.6077 will probably continue. The MACD indicator admits this scenario, with its signal line placed above the zero brand but pointing sharply down, indicating a strong bearish impulse.
In Figure H1, Aud/USD established a consolidation range about 0.6160 before breaking up to complete a correction at 0.6230. The following movement is expected to be a new descending wave that is directed at 0.6150. If this level is broken, the torque could extend the losses towards 0.6077. The stochastic oscillator confirms this bearish perspective, with its signal line below 80 and downward trend by 20, indicating a growing downward pressure.
Conclusion
The Australian dollar has organized a modest recovery, but the risks remain raised due to commercial tensions and the ongoing uncertainty of the United States-China around Australia's economic perspective. While short -term technical indicators suggest the potential for a greater disadvantage, the key levels to observe are 0.6150 and 0.6077. Market participants will closely monitor Trump's meeting with the data of the Xi Jinping and Australia trade balance to obtain more directional signals.
By analytical department of Roboforex
Discharge of responsibility
Any forecast contained in this document is based on the author's particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as commercial advice. Roboforex has no responsibility for commercial results based on commercial recommendations and reviews contained in this document.
