Why the documentary Oscar race is the most unpredictable


Most of the post-Oscar nominations chatter focuses on surprises and snubs involving the fictional nominees. But I'm a nonfiction nerd, so for me documentaries are where they're at, and in recent years, the selections have become delightfully unpredictable.

This year, two things that seemed to be a hit were left off the list: “Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie” and “American Symphony,” about musician Jon Batiste. Both are witty and their nominations seemed assured because, at least in the past, well-done portraits tended to attract eyes and, therefore, votes.

But here we are, in a strange new world. Biographical documentaries remain very popular; along with true crime, are what's hot in nonfiction right now, as our recently reviewed releases “June” and “Lil Nas X: Long Live Montero” indicate. This time, however, voters cast their net more widely.

In fact, much more broadly. Don't look now, but this may be the most innovative category of the awards. All five are international films and focus mainly on geopolitical situations. Three are led by women. And it just so happens that all five of them are also very good.

The eternal memory”, a second nomination for Chilean director Maite Alberdi (the first was “The Mole Agent”), made my Top 10 list last year. (Stream it on Paramount+.) It's about the erasure of public memory in Chile, refracted through the relationship of a couple: prominent cultural journalist Augusto Góngora and his wife, Paulina Urrutia, as she cares for him after a Alzheimer's diagnosis. (Góngora died last May).

The nomination of “four daughters”said its Tunisian director, Kaouther Ben Hania, the first Arab woman nominated twice for the Oscars. (Her first film, “The Man Who Sold His Skin,” was nominated for best international film.) “Four Daughters” (which can be rented on most major platforms) explores radicalization in a single Tunisian family and uses unexpected techniques, such as having actors perform Scenes from Family Life.

Bobi Wine: the people's president(Disney+), directed by Moses Bwayo and Christopher Sharp, is a kinetic look at the notable Ugandan musician turned activist and opposition party leader. It is more of a film about his family, especially his wife, Barbie Kyagulanyi, and what it means to commit to a cause.

The movement “kill a tiger(not yet available) follows Ranjit, an Indian farmer, who takes on the Herculean (and, perhaps, Sisyphean) task of demanding justice after three young men from his village rape his 13-year-old daughter. Directed by Nisha Pahuja, it is, like all these films, part personal story about familial love and part scathing exposé of how injustice built into a society can feel like a prison.

And finally, there is “20 days in Mariupol”(major platforms), directed and filmed by Associated Press journalist Mstyslav Chernov. Chernov and two AP colleagues spent just under three weeks in the titular Ukrainian city when the Russian invasion began in 2022, where they were trapped and kept cameras rolling. What they capture is a city under siege in real time, the civilians trapped along with them, and the extraordinary cost of war, borne by ordinary people.

For these types of films, an Oscar nomination can mean finally getting an audience. Years of work, and even danger, finally pay off. What a thrill, whoever wins on the big night.

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