Heidi Overton, Novo Nordisk CEO Maziar “Mike” Doustdar, Eli Lilly CEO David Ricks and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick listen as President Donald Trump announces a deal with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to reduce prices for the weight-loss drug GLP-1 during an event in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, Nov. 6, 2025.
Jonathan Ernst | Reuters
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Next week I'll be attending JPMorgan Healthcare's annual conference, the largest gathering of biotech and pharma executives, investors and analysts in the US.
The conference often sets the tone for the year ahead and will offer a preview of what the healthcare industry could look like in 2026. Executives from companies large and small are expected to present key business and pharmaceutical updates, announce eye-catching M&A deals and offer their take on industry sentiment more than a year into Trump 2.0.
That backdrop looks different than what many in the industry feared at the start of 2025. Several major pharmaceutical manufacturers ended the year with historic drug pricing deals with President Donald Trump, and a reprieve from their planned sector-specific tariffs. As a result, drug pricing and other policies may not dominate executives' conversations with investors for the first time in years.
Wall Street is likely to focus on the pharmaceutical industry's other problem: a roughly $300 billion patent gap by the end of the decade. Blockbuster drugs like Bristol Myers Squibb and Pfizer's blood thinner Eliquis and Keytruda, Merck's best-selling cancer immunotherapy, will face competition from cheaper competitors in the coming years, and companies are racing to make up for those revenue declines.
For example, Bristol-Myers Squibb has the greatest exposure to the next cycle of exclusivity loss, according to a note from JPMorgan analysts in late December. But the company has several data readouts this year that will provide clarity on its ability to grow after 2028.
Investors are likely to have questions about the upcoming Alzheimer's psychosis trials, called the Adept program, for Bristol Myers Squibb's Cobenfy, a prescription drug approved in late 2024 for the treatment of adults with schizophrenia. JPMorgan analysts see “a reasonable probability of success” for those studies.
For merckKeytruda's loss of exclusivity seems increasingly easier to manage. In September, a more convenient subcutaneous form of the drug gained approval in the United States (Keytruda is traditionally administered intravenously). That new shape should protect about 20% to 30% of Merck's Keytruda sales in the United States.
All eyes will be on Merck's pharmaceutical product updates for 2026. That could include early results from a phase three trial on a flu prevention product from Cidara Therapeutics, which the company acquired in November.
Merck may also have more deals up its sleeve: The Financial Times reported Thursday that the pharmaceutical company is in talks to buy Revolution Medicines, a cancer drug maker with a market capitalization of more than $20 billion.
Obesity will also continue to be a hot topic during the conference, as Nordisk and Eli Lilly are launching or preparing to launch GLP-1 pills and other drugmakers are racing to catch up.
I'm looking for additional details from Novo Nordisk on the launch of its Wegovy pill, which began reaching patients this week, and what the company plans to focus on next. Eli Lilly will also talk about what to expect from its own oral GLP-1 called orforglipron, which will likely gain approval from the Food and Drug Administration in the first half of the year.
Both companies are also likely to face questions about evolving GLP-1 market dynamics, including the direct-to-consumer channel and Medicare coverage for anti-obesity drugs starting mid-year.
Names like amgen, AstraZeneca and Pfizerwhich recently acquired obesity biotech Metsera, will also face questions about its ambitions in the weight-loss drug market.
Be sure to stay up to date with our coverage all week! And please stop by and say hi if you see me on the ground in San Francisco.
Feel free to send any tips, suggestions, story ideas and facts to Annika at a new email: [email protected].
