Novo says Wegovy pill outperforms Lilly's oral GLP-1

The Wegovy pill showed more pronounced weight loss and less burdensome side effects than Eli LillyThe rival pill that was approved this week, Nordisk he said Thursday.

Oral Wegovy demonstrated “significantly greater mean weight loss” than orforglipron, which Lilly will sell under the Foundayo brand starting next week, in an indirect study that compared the results of other studies.

The de novo findings evaluated previously published studies on the drugs and did not include any new data points. It will present more details of the study at the Obesity Medicine Association's annual conference next week, the Danish manufacturer said.

A separate analysis suggested that 84% of patients preferred a similar pharmacological profile of semaglutide, the active ingredient in Wegovy and Ozempic, to that of Foundayo, Novo said.

“These studies add to the growing body of evidence supporting the clinical strength of semaglutide and highlight the attributes that patients value when choosing an obesity medication that fits their lifestyle,” said newly appointed Executive Vice President of US Operations Jamey Millar.

It comes as Novo and Lilly are trying to shape the narrative for their respective pills, which is widely seen as the start of the next phase of the weight-loss drug era. The introduction of pills as an alternative to injections is expected to expand the market as they are more easily distributed around the world and preferred by consumers.

Eli Lilly CEO Dave Ricks told CNBC this week that Foundayo is more accessible and can be more easily integrated into daily routines.

Foundayo can be taken without dietary restrictions, while the Wegovy pill should be taken first thing in the morning on an empty stomach with only a small amount of water, and patients should wait at least 30 minutes before eating.

Novo CEO Mike Doustdar rejected the idea that such restrictions would limit uptake, telling CNBC in March that was “absolutely not the case.”

“People are really interested because it is the most effective pill currently on the market,” Doustdar added.

Previous studies have shown that oral Wegovy produced an average weight loss of 16.6%, while Foundayo showed an average weight loss of 12.4% among patients who continued treatment.

Since the launch of the Wegovy pill in the United States in early January, prescriptions have skyrocketed and more than 600,000 patients have since started taking the pill. Analysts have described it as one of the best launches of a new drug ever, with faster initial acceptance than injectable versions.

However, after a strong rollout, the number of patients prescribed the initial dose appears to be flattening, Barclays analyst James Gordon said on Wednesday.

“We believe the slowdown in new starts could be a result of patient stockpiling as physicians await the launch of LLY's Foundayo (oforglipron),” Gordon wrote in a note to clients.

Several analysts said the trajectory of Foundayo's prescriptions will be a key determinant of the stock price over the coming weeks and months.

Expectations for Foundayo's sales in 2026 have dropped significantly over the past month, from around $4 billion to $1.6 billion, RBC Capital Markets analyst Trung Huynh said Wednesday.

“While there have been price erosion headwinds in the GLP1 space, we believe there are substantial upsides with the expected expansion of Medicare Part D later this year,” Huynh said.

An RBC survey conducted in March of nearly 200 patients, prescribers and payers indicated that Foundayo would be the preferred oral option among patients as it has no dosing restrictions.

Novo said Thursday that the latest findings suggest the Wegovy pill may offer differentiation, which has become an important consideration as the anti-obesity space appears to become increasingly competitive in the coming years. Hopeful market participants are focusing on obesity-related diseases, weight maintenance, and improved side effect profiles.

The Wegovy pill also outperformed Foundayo in terms of discontinuation rates, as the intertrial comparison published Thursday showed that Lilly's new drug was associated with about 14 times greater odds of stopping treatment due to side effects than the Wegovy pill.

The most common side effects of GLP-1 drugs are gastrointestinal, such as nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea.

The obesity drug market may not be as big as previously expected, HSBC warned last month, as it recommended clients sell Lilly shares, which have significantly outperformed Novo over the past 18 months.

Expectations for Foundayo's sales are exaggerated and will likely disappoint, the broker said.