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Falling fertility rates will trigger a transformative demographic shift over the next 25 years, with major implications for the global economy, according to a new study.
By 2050, three-quarters of countries are projected to fall below the population replacement birth rate of 2.1 babies per woman, according to research published Wednesday in the medical journal The Lancet.
That would leave 49 countries (mainly in low-income regions of sub-Saharan Africa and Asia) responsible for the majority of new births.
“Future trends in fertility and birth rates will propagate changes in global population dynamics, driving changes in international relations and the geopolitical environment, and highlighting new challenges in migration and global aid networks,” the researchers wrote. authors of the report in its conclusion.
By 2100, only six countries are expected to have population-replacing birth rates: the African nations of Chad, Niger and Tonga, the Pacific islands of Samoa and Tonga, and Tajikistan in Central Asia.
That changing demographic landscape will have “profound” social, economic, environmental and geopolitical impacts, the report's authors said.
In particular, workforce reductions in advanced economies will require significant policy and fiscal intervention, even as technological advances provide some support.
“As the workforce declines, the overall size of the economy will tend to decline even if output per worker remains the same. In the absence of liberal immigration policies, these nations will face many challenges,” said lead author Dr. Christopher Murray. The director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation told CNBC the report.
“AI (artificial intelligence) and robotics can lessen the economic impact of the decline in the workforce, but some sectors such as housing would still be strongly affected,” he added.
Baby boom versus bust
The report, which was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, does not figure out the specific economic impact of demographic changes. However, it did highlight a divergence between high-income countries, where birth rates are steadily falling, and low-income countries, where they continue to rise.
From 1950 to 2021, the global fertility rate (TFR), or average number of babies born per woman, more than halved, falling from 4.84 to 2.23, as many countries became richer. and women had fewer babies. That trend was exacerbated by social changes, such as an increase in female participation in the workforce and policy measures, including China's one-child policy.
From 2050 to 2100, the global fertility rate will continue to fall from 1.83 to 1.59. The replacement rate (or number of children a couple would need to have to replace themselves) is 2.1 in most developed countries.
This comes even as the world's population is forecast to grow from 8 billion currently to 9.7 billion by 2050, before peaking at around 10.4 billion in the mid-2080s, according to the UN.
Many advanced economies already have fertility rates well below the replacement rate. By mid-century, that category will include major economies China and India, and South Korea's birth rate will be the lowest in the world, at 0.82.
Meanwhile, low-income countries are expected to see their share of new births nearly double, from 18% in 2021 to 35% in 2100. By the turn of the century, sub-Saharan Africa will account for half of all new births, according to The report.
Murray said this could put poorer countries in a “stronger position” to negotiate more ethical and fair immigration policies, an influence that could become important as countries become increasingly exposed to the effects of climate change.
