Anti-obesity pills from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly arrive

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GLP-1 pills for obesity are closer than ever.

2026 is likely to be the year two new oral weight-loss medications reach U.S. patients. For some people, the pills may serve as a more convenient (and potentially, in certain cases, cheaper) alternative to today's successful injections.

Drug manufacturers New Nordisky Eli Lilly They have said their daily pills could help the drugs reach new patients. This could include people who fear needles or patients who could benefit from existing injections but do not receive them because they do not consider their need to be serious enough.

The upcoming pills are not expected to be more effective than weekly injections, but health experts emphasize that expanding the range of treatment options could still be a big win for patients. After the shots hit supply shortages across the country in recent years, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have already started making enough pills to meet expected demand.

In an August note, Goldman Sachs analysts forecast that pills will capture a 24% share (or about $22 billion) of the global weight-loss drug market in 2030, which they expect to be worth $95 billion in total.

Here's what you should know about the upcoming pills.

Most importantly, Novo Nordisk could overtake its rival in the market. The Danish manufacturer's oral semaglutide, the active ingredient in its Wegovy obesity injection and Ozempic diabetes vaccine, is scheduled to gain approval by the end of the year.

This sets up the launch of the drug, which will be marketed as Wegovy in a pill, early next year.

Meanwhile, Eli Lilly has not yet filed for approval of its oral GLP-1, or forglipron, but the company is preparing to do so before the end of the year. The Food and Drug Administration said in November that it had granted a priority review voucher to that pill, which could speed up the drug's review timeline to a few months.

It's unclear exactly when that approval might be, but it's safe to say the pill will enter the market sometime in 2026.

None of the drug manufacturers have published specific list prices for their pills. But we already know that they are planning discounts for patients.

Under recent deals with President Donald Trump, the companies said initial doses of their upcoming pills, pending approval, will cost $149 a month for anyone who gets them through the TrumpRx direct-to-consumer website. That site launches in January.

This is already cheaper than the discounted prices planned for existing shots from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. Currently, drugs like Wegovy and Zepbound, Eli Lilly's anti-obesity shot, have list prices of about $1,000 a month before insurance.

It is difficult to directly compare the results of separate clinical trials of the two drugs to compare their effectiveness. What's more, Eli Lilly's ATTAIN-1 trial of its pill followed 3,000 obese or overweight patients, while Novo Nordisk's OASIS 4 study of its own oral medication evaluated a much smaller group of about 300. There are currently no studies directly comparing the two treatments.

But Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide appears to cause a greater level of weight loss than Eli Lilly's pill, based on available data, some analysts have said.

In Eli Lilly's trial, the highest dose of its pill helped patients lose 12.4% of their body weight on average at 72 weeks. The weight loss achieved with the pill was 11.2% when analyzing all patients regardless of their discontinuations.

Meanwhile, Novo Nordisk's 25-milligram dose of oral semaglutide helped patients lose up to 16.6% of their weight on average at 64 weeks, according to trial results presented at a medical conference in 2024. That weight loss was 13.6% when the company looked at all patients regardless of whether they stopped the drug.

Still, the slightly lower effectiveness of Eli Lilly's pill may not be significant enough to deter patients from taking it.

In the August note, Goldman analysts said they expect Eli Lilly's pill to have a 60% share (or about $13.6 billion) of the daily oral segment of the market in 2030. They expect Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide to have a 21% share (or about $4 billion) of that segment. The remaining 19% portion is expected to go to other emerging pills, analysts said.

So who's next? Viking Therapeutics, Structure Therapeutics, AstraZeneca, Roche and Pfizer are all developing their own anti-obesity pills, and we will certainly see more data on those experimental drugs next year.

Stay tuned for our coverage.

Feel free to send any tips, suggestions, story ideas and facts to Annika at a new email: [email protected].