© Reuters. Updated Bitcoin Price Outlook 2024
With the price rising once again, cryptocurrencies are once again becoming a key talking point among investors and analysts.
Bitcoin Prices
After considerable gains in recent weeks, Bitcoin has continued to rise this week, surpassing $57,000 on Tuesday. The latest move saw it reach its highest level since November 2021.
Year to date, the top cryptocurrency is up 35%, while Tuesday's more than 4% gains (so far) add to its more than 142% rise over the past 12 months.
Research firm Compass Point said in a recent note that BTC and ETH have outperformed and increased significantly since its last report. The move has also driven “strong returns for cryptocurrency stocks,” the company notes.
For example, Coinbase (NASDAQ 🙂 is up more than 13% so far this year, while Microstrategy (NASDAQ 🙂 is up 24.9% in 2024.
Compass Point picked COIN as a stock they continue to like, maintaining a Buy rating and $235 price target on the name. The firm believes it will “benefit from higher trading volumes as BTC dominance wanes and a stronger retail mix, higher staking revenue driven by higher ETH/SOL prices, and higher interest income from USDC that begin to take part as long as short-term rates remain high. “
Bitcoin Price Forecast
Looking ahead, Compass Point said they continue to like the BTC/Crypto setup and “expect a sizeable rally in year 24, with BTC exiting the year at levels of ~$85,000 or higher driven by ETF inflows.” that exceed the offer available on the stock exchanges”.
The company highlighted that the low of the previous BTC cycle occurred at the end of November 2022 at levels of ~$16.5K.
“Since then, we have seen BTC price 3.3x to current levels of ~$55,000,” Compass Point added. “The overlay of the previous 3-year cycle returns from the lows shows a strong relationship, which would suggest considerable continued upside if these trends were to continue before peaking sometime in 2H25 or early CY26.”
Compass Point analysts acknowledged that interest rates had not been this high in previous cycles. As a result, they believe “absolute returns probably won't be as high.”
However, they affirm that “until now the cycles rhyme.” Until they see trends indicating otherwise, the company continues to “expect strong BTC price growth post-halving, which has historically been strongest in the first year post-halving before beginning decrease”.
Separately, Bernstein analysts said in a recent memo that the cryptocurrency bull market is broadening, with the Bitcoin bull market led by steady ETF inflows. The firm said that the Bitcoin halving is scheduled for around April 20, 2024 and that the cryptocurrency's price historically skyrockets after the event.
“This time around, Bitcoin price action appears stronger ahead of the halving and, in our view, will likely maintain momentum for the rest of the year,” they wrote. The institutional narrative led by Bitcoin ETFs is driving demand, and with Bitcoin being the reflective asset, we expect a higher price to drive higher ETF inflows, leading to new highs in 2024.”
