Even before a snowstorm brought Des Moines to a near standstill on Friday, the city felt decidedly more subdued than it usually does around the Iowa caucuses: quiet restaurants, empty streets, waiters with little to do.
The numbers confirm it: the 2024 caucuses are expected to bring to the capital less than 40 percent of the direct economic impact that the 2020 race provided: an estimated $4.2 million, compared to $11.3 million. dollars from four years ago. Direct economic impact measures what visitors do, such as sleeping, driving, eating and drinking.
It's a striking decline that reflects, among other things, lower media participation in a presidential race that is less competitive than in previous years, when the state has been inundated with presidential hopefuls, their campaigns and teams of journalists chasing them.
“The media is very low,” said Greg Edwards, executive director of the Greater Des Moines Convention and Visitors Bureau, which provided the numbers. “The major networks are not sending their top anchors as they have in the past.”
The $4.2 million figure does not represent the full economic boom of the Iowa caucuses. Tens of millions of dollars have poured into the state in recent months, culminating this week in a flurry of events. Campaigns and the super PACs that support them have spent $119.6 million on television advertising in Iowa, according to an analysis by AdImpact, a media tracking company.
The caucuses' impact on Iowa's economy typically comes through two main channels. First, campaigns and political committees spend millions on Iowa-based consultants, strategists, advertising firms and television time as candidates try to introduce themselves to Iowans, generate interest and motivate potential caucus-goers.
Will Rogers, a Republican operative in Des Moines, said a “crop of consultants” had grown in Iowa working to guide candidates into the caucuses. He guessed there were more political consultants per capita in Iowa than almost anywhere else.
“The caucuses have generated a lot of money,” he said.
Caucuses also have a knock-on effect on the economy, in the form of increased patronage at hotels, car rental agencies, cafes, restaurants and even clothing stores. (Neophyte political journalists, for example, might forget to bring warm socks.)
This is the measure that was overdue this season, even before the snow storm hit.
Steve Cook, who runs an audiovisual company in Iowa City, is one of the many beneficiaries of the four-year increase in economic activity in Iowa.
His company, Steve Cook Sound, has managed events for several Republican candidates this cycle. To accommodate the increase in work in January, he hired additional teams, covering dozens of events each week. In 2023, his gross revenue increased tenfold, compared to triple in 2019, when he was primarily a subcontractor.
“The caucus is a big obstacle for me,” Cook said. “Iowa's economic boom is incredible.”
But on Friday, Cook was holed up in his Iowa City office with his dog, ordering his teams to retreat or even turn around, as campaigns reevaluated their plans because of the weather.
“I've had to do a lot of juggling to position people,” Cook said. She wasn't even thinking yet, she said, about “the income I could have made versus what I'm going to lose.”
This season, Iowa's surge has been hurt by a few factors, officials and political observers said, including Trump's huge lead in primary polls. On the Democratic side, President Biden has dumped Iowa in favor of South Carolina at the top of the nominating calendar and, in any case, faces no serious primary challenge.
In 2020, more than 2,000 media representatives signed up to cover caucuses on the ground in Iowa, Edwards said. This time, it's only 900. In a facility with 1,800 hotel rooms, that makes a big difference.
The weather has also complicated things. The arrival of snow has caused the cancellation of flights. Below freezing temperatures are expected over the weekend.
The BeechWood Lounge, in the city's East Village area, near the Capitol building, is a local favorite. In previous caucuses, the small space was packed late at night with production crews and camera operators on their off-hours.
“CNN had eight to 10 people every night” in 2020, Eric Olson, the bar's general manager, said Thursday. “Talent goes to bed and the team goes.”
“Every four years, for once, everyone cares about Iowa,” he said.
This year has been quiet. “We were hoping they would come this week, but the snow…” he said, his voice breaking. “It's ruining the whole week we were planning.”
He had about a 25 percent increase in business in 2020 and estimated it would be about 15 percent this year. He had hired an extra waiter for the week, but canceled when he saw the weather forecast, which called for snow overnight and temperatures that would drop to single digits over the weekend.
“With 5 degrees, no one is going to want to walk a block,” he said.
