LOS ANGELES – A push toward streaming, a pandemic and two labor strikes in Hollywood have disrupted the theater industry, dragging down annual box office profits.
While 2024 and 2025 feature franchise-rich movie slates, Wall Street doesn't expect ticket sales to top $10 billion domestically until 2026. The domestic box office hasn't hit that benchmark since 2019, before of the Covid pandemic. Last year, it raised just over $9 billion.
When the box office exceeds that threshold again, disney could be the driving force.
“We don't fully know what will happen in 2026, but I think it could end up being bigger than 2025 because it will be the first time we have four mega franchise movies,” said Eric Handler, CEO of Roth MKM.
The 2025 movie schedule concludes with a third Avatar movie in mid-December, meaning ticket sales will extend into 2026. That summer then begins with an Avengers team-up movie, currently titled “Dynasty Kang”, followed by a “Mandalorian”. Star Wars movie during Memorial Day weekend. Another Star Wars movie will round out Disney's big year in December 2026.
The track records of those franchises suggest they could generate staggering box office grosses.
After all, the first Avatar generated nearly $800 million at the domestic box office after its release in 2009. “Avatar: The Way of Water,” which arrived in 2022, grossed nearly $700 million. Both films were released in late December and thus the majority of ticket sales were collected in the year after their debut.
Meanwhile, four of the five Star Wars franchise films released after Disney acquired the brand in 2012 generated at least $500 million domestically during their screenings: 2015's “The Force Awakens” topped $900 million. of dollars. “Solo: A Star Wars Story” was the only one to gross less than $250 million domestically.
As for Marvel, while standalone character films have been hit or miss over the past decade, films titled The Avengers have had strong box office returns. The four Avengers films grossed an average of $650 million in ticket sales in the United States and Canada.
Add in three untitled Marvel movie dates, two unnamed Pixar movies, a Disney animated film scheduled for Thanksgiving and six other Disney titles, and industry analysts are confident moviegoers will find its way to the cinemas. Other important studies such as Universal, Supreme and Warner Bros. Discovery They have not yet revealed their rosters for 2026.
“I think 2026 has a good chance of being the year the industry hits $10 billion again,” Handler said.
Since pandemic shutdowns crippled the theater business and delayed film productions, movie theaters have reopened, but audiences have not returned at the same pace as before.
An influx of streamable content and fewer wide releases have partially created this shift in movie-going habits. Moviegoers often spend more money on premium tickets to see major event movies on the biggest, loudest screens possible.
While Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at BoxOffice.com, said he doesn't disagree that the box office will likely surpass $10 billion again in 2026, he noted that “it's still too early to say.” [if 2025] “He will or he will not.”
Robbins noted that dual labor strikes by writers and actors in Hollywood will likely continue to weigh on the box office, and films currently scheduled for late 2024 or 2025 could still shift on the calendar.
And Disney could modify its current slate of movies by 2026.
“Given the creative hurdles Disney is facing right now, I wouldn't be surprised to see several of those '26 movies delayed or perhaps not made at all,” Robbins said.
Disney CEO Bob Iger has said that the company has become too reliant on sequels and that his studio will be more deliberate in selecting which films will become franchises, especially in the Marvel Cinematic Universe. It is also unclear how the company will address the firing of Jonathan Majors, who was convicted of assault in December. He was the central villain of the next phase of Marvel films.
In addition to the movie date changes, Robbins noted that not all of the movies coming out in 2025 have been announced. So, where industry experts see gaps between the major poles of the tent, there could be movies from lower budget that add incremental value to the overall box office.
While 2024 is set to be a franchise frenzy, led by “Dune: Part Two,” the 2023 box office saw surprise hits like Angel Studios' “Sound of Freedom” and AMC Entertainment distribution of Taylor Swift's Eras Tour concert film.
Robbins said a similar scenario could play out in 2025, as more mid-range movies hit theaters, potentially adding a few hundred million dollars each to the overall total.
“In no way am I looking at the 25th as a guarantee of $10 billion,” Robbins said. “But even though it's not even in the conversation for the 24th, it's worth speculating about the 25th.”
Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC.
