Movie posters are displayed at a cinema in Shanghai on August 31, 2025.
vcg | China Visual Group | fake images
Hollywood has lost one of its most lucrative theatrical markets. It's unclear if he'll ever get it back.
The Chinese box office was once a coveted space for American-made films, to the point that studios produced films that would appeal directly to this international audience. But in the post-pandemic movie landscape, Hollywood has not generated the strong ticket sales it once saw for its biggest blockbusters, and a waning relationship with Chinese theaters is at least partly to blame.
The US-China Film Agreement, signed in 2012 between the two governments, guaranteed that 34 American films would be released in China each year. That pact ended in 2017 and was never renewed or renegotiated. At the same time, China began expanding its local film production and instituting blackout dates to promote audiences for its local titles.
Add to that the Film Administration of China's strict censorship policies and recent political tensions between the United States and China, and Hollywood films have faced several obstacles to being distributed in the country post-Covid.
“I think the kind of euphoria about the biggest market in the world and thinking about China as a place that always creates a bigger market for the US. [intellectual property] “It's not accurate,” said Aynne Kokas, a professor at the University of Virginia and author of “Hollywood Made in China.”
“[There are] limitations on the market in several ways, first related to content control and not only in terms of censorship, but also in terms of control of distribution channels by the party,” Kokas said.
He said the film bureau will “turn distribution levers on and off based on market needs.” If local Chinese films do well, the country will limit distribution access for foreign films. If there are gaps in movie releases or the releases don't sell as many tickets, the market will open up.
In 2019, nine American titles each generated more than $100 million at the Chinese box office, with disney and Marvel Studio's “Avengers: Endgame” grossing more than $600 million in the region, according to Comscore data.
However, in the last five years combined, only 10 American films have made more than $100 million in China, and only two have surpassed $200 million.
The outlier is Disney's “Zootopia 2,” which grossed a record $650 million in the country after its release in 2025.
Box office analysts tell CNBC that this feat is likely an anomaly and that studios and Wall Street should not expect a sudden resurgence in ticket sales for American-made films in the region, even as major franchises launch ahead of the key summer movie season.
Market nuances
What works well in the United States does not guarantee success in China, despite the enormous audience potential.
“There's not necessarily a one-to-one correlation between popular intellectual property in the United States and popular intellectual property in China,” Kokas said.
In some cases, it is a lack of nostalgia on the part of the Chinese public. Kokas noted that when Star Wars was introduced to the region with the sequel trilogy in 2015, it failed because the previous films in the original and prequel trilogies were never released in China, so subsequent installments did not have the boost of a built-in fan base.
Distribution experts told CNBC that the Chinese film office and audience tend to gravitate toward films that are visual spectacles and apolitical.
Movies that have performed well in the region since the pandemic include entries in the Fast & Furious saga, Jurassic World movies, and installments in the Godzilla and King Kong franchises.
Even with the recent pause in ticket sales for Chinese releases, studios are not deterred from releasing titles in the region. A distribution expert told CNBC that China remains a major theatrical opportunity for American-made films.
““China remains an essential component in any international strategy for US-based studios because many hundreds of millions of dollars can be made there due to the region's undeniable appetite for big Hollywood movies,” said Paul Dergarabedian, head of market trends at Comscore.
Universal's “The Super Mario Galaxy Movie” is the next American release in the country and will open in theaters this weekend.
The first film in the franchise, “The Super Mario Bros. Movie,” grossed more than $1.3 billion globally in 2023, but only $25 million of that total came from China.
A distribution expert told CNBC that console games, such as Nintendo's Super Mario franchise, are not as prevalent in the region, meaning the nostalgia that drove $575 million in domestic ticket sales was not a major factor in China.
Meanwhile, in Japan, where Super Mario is a cultural icon, the film generated $102 million.
Still, the Chinese market helps bolster a film's overall performance and has the potential to cement a major hit. Therefore, studios are still willing to release the titles in theaters in the region.
Also on the distribution list in China this year is Universal's “Michael.” Warner Bros.' Disney's “Mortal Kombat II” and “The Devil Wears Prada 2.”
Due to China's strict censorship policies, films must be finished and screened by the film office before being considered for distribution. Therefore, China's Hollywood landscape is not set in stone in the same way that the domestic film landscape is.
But box office analysts expect titles like Disney and Pixar's “Toy Story 5” and Warner Bros. “Dune: Part Three,” as well as Disney and Marvel's “Avengers: Doomsday,” will also hit Chinese theaters this year.
