Part Two' hits theaters Friday amid box office drought

LOS ANGELES – Movie theater operators hope Warner Bros. and Legendary Entertainment's “Dune: Part Two,” opening in theaters Friday, will be a much-needed oasis amid a drought of blockbuster content.

Since the beginning of the year, the domestic box office has totaled just $866.4 million in ticket sales through Sunday, a drop of nearly 18% from the same period in 2023, according to Comscore data. A boost early in the year could prove critical for a box office still struggling to recoup $10 billion in annual domestic ticket sales, a mark last seen before the Covid pandemic.

“The arrival of 'Dune: Part Two' comes at a point where the industry is looking for that momentum to create a blockbuster,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore.

So far in 2024, no film has generated more than $100 million in revenue. As the surprise hits like sony “Anyone but you” next to paramount “Mean Girls” and “Bob Marley: One Love” have helped fill theaters, the box office had few vestiges of holiday hits and limited new offerings in the new year.

Last year, the first quarter was boosted by $263 million in ticket sales from disney “Avatar: The Way of Water”, which hit theaters in December of the previous year. Similarly, 2022 had more than $200 million in residual sales from Sony and Marvel's 2021 hit “Spider-Man: No Way Home.”

“We're used to these ups and downs,” said Bill Barstow, who runs ACX Cinemas, a movie theater chain with six theaters in five states. “And certainly, there's no mystery to the last three years of the pandemic and then the attacks and all the things that kick us around. But then along comes something like 'Dune.'”

“It's been a very tough winter at the box office, as expected after numerous strike-induced delays crushed an already disappointing studio slate in recent months,” said Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at BoxOffice.com. “'Dune: Part Two' represents the change of course.”

While Warner Bros. projects a conservative debut of $65 million for the long-awaited sci-fi sequel, box office analysts are predicting a gross of between $70 million and $80 million. Especially since moviegoers are likely to gravitate toward premium large-format screenings, which are more expensive than regular tickets.

“We have sold out showings of 'See It First' at all of our IMAX locations and guest response is already extremely positive,” said Jeff Whipple, vice president of advertising, marketing and public relations for Larry H. Miller Megaplex Theaters. , which operates 15 locations, predominantly in Utah.

“Utah movie fans know that 'Dune: Part Two' is a great movie that should be experienced on the biggest screen possible,” he said, adding that Megaplex locations are seeing strong advance ticket sales for premium auditoriums like IMAX , Dolby Atmos and D-Box motion screens.

The lure of these higher-priced tickets is leading some exhibitors to think the film could outperform screenings.

“I think Warner Bros. has been conservative,” said Tim Handren, chief executive of Santikos Entertainment, a regional movie theater chain with 27 theaters in eight states. “Warner Bros. has done a fantastic job promoting this film.”

“They are marketing geniuses,” he added. “They just know how to raise awareness.”

The film's cast has been heavily promoting the film for weeks, participating in road trips, video interviews, and appearing on late-night shows. Even the stars' premiere outfits have been making headlines, raising more awareness for the film's release.

Joining industry veterans like Christopher Walken, Stellan Skarsgard, Javier Bardem, Josh Brolin and Dave Bautista, “Dune: Part Two” features four of Hollywood's biggest young stars: Zendaya, Timothee Chalamet, Florence Pugh and Austin Butler .

Advance ticket sales for the weekend are coming forward universal “Oppenheimer,” which debuted with $82.4 million, but below “Jurassic World Dominion,” which debuted with about $145 million, according to Fandango data.

Theater operators, while focused on the film's opening weekend, are, perhaps, more interested in the longevity of “Dune: Part Two” at the box office.

While there are a number of new releases in March, which will help boost the overall domestic box office, “April is not as strong,” Handren noted.

Titles like “Dune: Part Two,” which have a real chance of staying in theaters with limited drops in week-over-week ticket sales, may help keep the box office afloat until the summer movie season begins in early May. .

The film also offers exhibitors the opportunity to introduce audiences to upcoming films with those familiar trailers before the film begins.

“I think 'Dune' opens up the whole world for us for the summer,” Barstow said.

Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC.