Ryan Gosling stars in Universal's “The Fall Guy.”
Universal
For the first time since 2009, the box office is without a Marvel movie to kick off the summer movie season, and it shows.
Since the release of “Iron Man” in 2008, the Marvel Cinematic Universe films have consistently launched this highly lucrative film season, with only two films generating less than $100 million in releases in that time (not including the film years). pandemic).
This year, the top movie of the first weekend of summer was universal “The scapegoat.” And despite strong marketing efforts and strong reviews, it failed to boost ticket sales during its opening last weekend. The film grossed less than $28 million during its domestic debut.
“'The Fall Guy' had quality co-stars with Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt, but the lack of a well-known franchise brand and a niche story made it too limited to appeal to a mass summer-like audience,” Eric Handler, director CEO of Roth MKM, he wrote in a note to investors on Monday.
That stumble doesn't bode well for the summer box office, which was already poised to decline from last year's $4.1 billion after two Hollywood labor strikes halted production and clogged the pipeline of new films. film premieres.
The result could reduce the summer 2024 box office by as much as $800 million compared to 2023, according to Comscore's Paul Dergarabedian, and have a ripple effect for the entire year. After all, the key summer period, which runs from the first weekend in May through Labor Day, typically accounts for 40% of the total annual domestic box office.
A limited and unstable flow of new movies means moviegoers haven't been exposed to movie trailers and promotional posters at their local theaters and may not be aware of which features are headed to the big screen. Additionally, this summer's movie slate isn't as strong as previous years, with fewer blockbusters and major franchise films.
There's only one superhero movie scheduled for summer: “Deadpool and Wolverine,” the first R-rated Disney Marvel movie, and it won't arrive until late July.
Currently, analysts believe the summer movie season will surpass $3 billion in ticket sales, but just barely. Before Covid, the summer box office consistently exceeded $4 billion. The last time ticket sales reached $3 billion during this season was in 2000, according to Comscore data.
“Even with the inevitable year-over-year decline in revenue, Summer of '24 should be judged more by the quality and value of the movie experience than by the amount of box office money in the box,” Dergarabedian said.
A dull summer
So far this quarter, the box office is down 48% year over year, Handler noted. While he hopes the May lineup will help strengthen ticket sales, the box office will “need to see big gains” to “make up some lost ground.”
“Right now, movie theater operators need a major injection of content,” Handler wrote. “Not only has the volume of content decreased in the second quarter, but it also lacks appeal.”
The most important film releases of the summer
May 9: “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes”
May 17 – “YES”
May 17: “The Strangers: Chapter 1”
May 24: “Furiosa: A Mad Max Story”
May 24: “The Garfield Movie”
June 7: “Bad Boys: Ride or Die”
June 14: “Inside Out 2”
June 21: “The Cyclists”
June 28: “A Quiet Place: Day One”
July 3: “Despicable Me 4”
July 19: “Tornadoes”
July 26: “Deadpool and Wolverine”
August 9: “Borderlands”
August 16: “Alien: Romulus”
August 23: “The Raven”
For the rest of May, Disney's “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” expects a domestic opening weekend of between $55 million and $60 million. Paramount's “IF” is around $40 million. And Warner Bros.' “Furiosa” is expected to fetch between $40 million and $50 million.
However, those forecasts pale in comparison to major releases from the same month last year. Universal's “Fast
It remains to be seen whether there will be any big hits this summer, like Angel's “Sound of Freedom” last year, that can boost the overall box office.
A strong ending
What the summer 2024 lineup offers is more family-friendly fare. A host of animated films from established franchises should appeal to parents and children during the school holidays.
Currently, Universal's “Kung Fu Panda 4” is the second-highest-grossing film domestically for 2024, with $188.4 million in ticket sales. Warner Bros. and Legendary Entertainment's “Dune: Part Two” is the highest-grossing domestic release so far this year with $281.3 million.
And in the last part of the year some heavyweights will arrive.
“Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” arrives in early September, “Joker: Folie a Deux” arrives in October along with “Venom: The Last Dance” and in November arrives “Gladiator II”, “Moana 2” and “Wicked”. Additionally, December will have “Kraven the Hunter,” “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” and “Mufasa: The Lion King.”
Notably, the first “Joker” grossed $335 million domestically in 2019, both “Venom” films generated $213 million each, 2016's Moana grossed $248.7 million, and the previous two ” Sonic” grossed $146 million and $190 million during its theatrical runs.
“Ultimately, the race is won at the multiplex and not on a spreadsheet,” Dergarabedian said.
Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC.
