The US Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) recent approval of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) sent cryptocurrency prices higher.
According to JPMorgan, the gap between price and net asset value (NAV) for Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) has almost closed, but fluctuations are expected if the US spot Ethereum ETF launch faces more delays.
While the SEC approved the Forms 19b-4, the S-1 filings are still under review.
The approval of these ETFs, which appears to exclude staking features to ensure SEC approval, suggests that the SEC may view Ethereum as a non-staking commodity.
JPMorgan analysts believe the SEC is unlikely to approve ETFs for other tokens, which are considered more centralized and considered securities, unless U.S. policymakers pass legislation treating most cryptocurrencies as commodities. , a scenario that was considered less likely before the US elections.
JPMorgan raised questions about the potential for investor inflows into the recently approved Ethereum spot ETFs. The bank anticipates that demand for these ETFs will be a fraction of what was seen for spot ETFs.
Reasons include Bitcoin's first-mover advantage, lack of a demand catalyst similar to Bitcoin's halving, initial exclusion of bets on Ethereum ETFs, Ethereum's different value proposition as an application token, lower liquidity/AUM, and the relative size of Ethereum. market compared to Bitcoin.
The bank estimates that Ethereum spot ETFs could attract modest net inflows of approximately $1 billion to $3 billion over the rest of the year. If betting were included in the future, potentially through legislative changes, receipts could rise to between $3 billion and $6 billion.
Finally, JPMorgan noted that the initial market reaction to the launch of Ethereum spot ETFs could be negative.
Following a parallel with the reaction following the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs in January of the previous year, the company expects around $1 billion to flow out of the Grayscale Ethereum Trust, as speculative investors who anticipated a conversion to an ETF They may make profits, which could lead to a short-term decline in Ethereum prices following the launch of spot ETFs.
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