JPMorgan Chase Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said Wednesday he still believes the odds of a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy are about 35% to 40%, making a recession the most likely scenario in his mind.
When CNBC's Leslie Picker asked Dimon if he had changed his view since February that markets were too optimistic about recession risks, he said the odds were “about the same” as his previous prediction.
“There's a lot of uncertainty,” Dimon said. “I've always said that geopolitics, housing, deficits, spending, quantitative easing, elections, all of these things cause some consternation in the markets.”
Dimon, the leader of the largest U.S. bank by assets and one of the most respected voices on Wall Street, has warned of an economic “hurricane” as early as 2022. But the economy has held up better than expected, and Dimon said Wednesday that while defaults by credit card borrowers are rising, the U.S. is not in a recession right now.
Dimon added that he is “a little skeptical” that the Fed can bring inflation down to its 2% target because of future spending on the green economy and the military.
“There's always a wide range of outcomes,” Dimon said. “I'm totally optimistic that if we have a mild recession, or even a harsher one, we'll be fine. Of course, I'm very sympathetic to people losing their jobs. We don't want a hard landing.”
