Investing.com – The upcoming US election could have significant implications for cryptocurrencies, according to analysts at Bernstein, who labelled Bitcoin a “Trump trade” in a note to clients on Monday.
The firm argues: “Cryptocurrencies are the rare case where the difference in the outcome of an election could determine the fate of the industry.”
While both campaigns have engaged with crypto leaders, Bernstein suggests that the Trump campaign’s openly pro-crypto stance is much more favorable to Bitcoin’s growth.
Trump has actively promoted turning the United States into “the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency capital of the world,” as evidenced by his speeches at events such as the Bitcoin Nashville conference.
Bernstein explains that Trump's policy promises include appointing a crypto-friendly SEC chairman and creating a national Bitcoin strategic reserve.
“Trump's speech at Bitcoin Nashville included: 1. America will be a Bitcoin mining powerhouse – Bitcoin will be mined in the US; 2. Appointing a crypto-friendly SEC chair on day one; 3. A national Bitcoin strategic reserve; 4. A cryptocurrency advisory council to the president,” Bernstein states.
By contrast, Bernstein says Harris’ campaign has largely avoided the topic of cryptocurrencies, with no specific mentions in her policy statements.
“Cryptocurrencies have not been mentioned even once in any of Harris' speeches. There is no mention of cryptocurrencies in the recent policy statement posted on Harris' website,” they say.
Bernstein expects Bitcoin to hit new highs if Trump wins, predicting a price range of $80,000 to $90,000 by Q4. However, in the event of a Harris victory, they forecast a possible drop, with Bitcoin testing the $30,000 to $40,000 range, citing concerns over ongoing regulatory challenges.
The note highlights that Bitcoin has already demonstrated resilience, increasing 112% over the past year despite regulatory and macroeconomic headwinds.
They believe that a Trump victory could provide a much-needed positive regulatory environment, spurring innovation and institutional participation in the crypto space.
On the other hand, a Harris victory could prolong uncertainty and keep Bitcoin under pressure. Therefore, this election could mark a crucial moment for the cryptocurrency's future trajectory.
