The war in Iran could raise global food prices as the conflict disrupts fertilizer shipments through one of the world's most critical trade routes.
While energy markets have focused on oil supply risks, analysts say threats to fertilizer supply chains across the Strait of Hormuz may also bring long-term economic problems through food inflation.
“Beyond energy, another risk that receives less attention is the potential knock-on effect on food prices as fertilizer shortages drive up agricultural costs,” Wolfe Research chief economist Stephanie Roth said in a note written Tuesday.
Roth estimates that the disruption could increase “food at home” inflation by about 2 percentage points, adding about 0.15 percentage points to overall U.S. inflation, on top of energy's roughly 0.40 percentage point increase.
Those potential price increases come as American consumers face a sustained streak of higher prices for food, housing and energy. Food inflation in the country rose 2.4% year over year in February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday.
Customers shop at Walmart in Little Rock, Arkansas, on January 22, 2026.
Will Newton | fake images
More than a third of fertilizers traded globally pass through the Strait of Hormuz, making it a critical artery for agricultural supply chains. Commercial traffic through the route has largely ground to a halt since the war began late last month, disrupting shipments just as farmers across the northern hemisphere prepare fields for spring planting.
Timing is critical because fertilizers are applied early in the crop cycle and help determine yields later in the year.
“If fertilizer supplies are reduced during this period, farmers may reduce application rates,” Roth said in the note. That could reduce yields of crops such as corn, soybeans, wheat and rice, and increase agricultural costs.
Fertilizer industry economists are equally concerned, saying prices are already rising.
Between the weeks ending February 27 and March 6, which encompass the start of the war, the price per short ton of urea fertilizer imports into the United States rose 30%, according to data compiled by industry advocacy group The Fertilizer Institute.
Urea, a nitrogen-based fertilizer widely used to increase crop yields, is one of the most marketed fertilizers circulating in the region.
Higher fertilizer prices for farmers and retailers could ultimately increase food costs for consumers if the trade disruption drags on, said Veronica Nigh, chief economist at The Fertilizer Institute.
“This is a global impact on fertilizer costs,” Nigh said. “I imagine these costs would be passed on to consumers much more in this scenario, something we haven't seen before.”
The United States depends on global fertilizer markets, importing about 20% of its total use, although nitrogen fertilizers such as urea come from a broader group of suppliers, including Canada, Trinidad and Tobago, Russia and elsewhere.
The domino effect could spread throughout the world and beyond raw materials. Asia and Africa are especially dependent on fertilizer exports from the Gulf region. Countries such as India rely heavily on supplies from the Gulf, while several African economies rely on imported materials used to produce fertilizers.
While disruptions to fertilizer shipments could reduce crop yields for farmers and increase costs for households, fertilizer producers could benefit.
CF Industries hit an all-time high on Monday and shares are up nearly 10% over the past week, the company's biggest multi-day gain since 2022.
Correction: This story has been revised to reflect that the conflict with Iran is disrupting fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. An earlier version misspelled the name of the body of water between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
