U.Today – In a recent article, Arthur Hayes painted a grim picture for the US dollar, suggesting that in the worst case scenario, it could gradually fall to the $50,000 mark. Hayes, who was previously optimistic, is now modifying his forecast and says that the market will remain bearish in the near term, especially until the end of September.
Hayes predicts that the price of bitcoin will only rise slightly during this time, while altcoins will likely see much larger declines. His logic is based on macroeconomic elements such as the spending patterns of the US government and the unhelpful tightening policies of the Federal Reserve. According to Hayes, as 10-year Treasury bond yields approach the risky 5% mark, the bond market will tighten conditions, something the Fed has not done.
This shift could put an end to the current bullish trend in the stock market and raise questions about the balance sheets of smaller banks, which would put more pressure on riskier assets like bitcoin. It is worth noting that Hayes still maintains a bullish long-term outlook. He has not sold all of his assets and may even buy more of a few different cryptocurrencies.
His vision for the future is based on his belief that at some point the US Treasury General Account (TGA) will be reduced or quantitative easing (QE) will be reinstated as a means of government intervention in markets to infuse liquidity.
According to Hayes, in the long run, these measures would strengthen the value of Bitcoin, but his short-term outlook is rather bleak. Bitcoin is expected to continue its gradual decline, and the $50,000 threshold will be a crucial level to watch.
Hayes believes that Bitcoin’s price will continue to fall until the intervention begins, which will likely happen in late September, while altcoins could fall even further. While one could argue that Bitcoin’s volatility and market dynamics frequently defy such predictions, Hayes offers compelling arguments for his pessimistic short-term outlook.
Numerous factors, many of which are subject to sudden changes, affect the price of cryptocurrencies. Therefore, its long-term bullish outlook remains valid, but it remains dangerous to make specific predictions about short-term levels.
This article was originally published on U.Today
