Ferragudo, Portugal.
Gonzalo Azumendi | Stone | fake images
A version of this article first appeared in CNBC's Inside Wealth newsletter with Robert Frank, a weekly guide for high-net-worth investors and consumers. Register to receive future issues, directly to your inbox.
A growing number of wealthy Americans are making plans to leave the country in the run-up to Tuesday's election, and many fear political and social unrest regardless of who wins, according to immigration attorneys.
Lawyers and advisors for family offices and high-net-worth families said they are seeing record demand from clients seeking second passports or long-term residences abroad. While it is common to talk about moving abroad after an election, wealth advisers said this time many of the wealthy are already taking action.
“We've never seen demand like we're seeing now,” said Dominic Volek, head of the private client group at Henley & Partners, which advises the wealthy on international migration.
Volek said that for the first time, wealthy Americans are by far the company's largest customer base, representing 20% of its business, or more than any other nationality. He said the number of Americans making plans to move abroad has increased at least 30% over last year.
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David Lesperance, managing partner of Lesperance and Associates, the international tax and immigration firm, said the number of Americans hiring him for potential moves abroad has roughly tripled from last year.
A survey by Arton Capital, which advises the wealthy on immigration programs, found that 53% of American millionaires say they are more likely to leave the United States after the election, no matter who wins. The youngest millionaires were the most likely to leave, with 64% of millionaires aged 18 to 29 saying they were “very interested” in seeking so-called golden visas through a residency-by-investment program abroad.
Of course, interest in second passports or residencies has risen steadily among wealthy Americans since Covid-19. Whether it's retiring to a warmer, cheaper country or being closer to family abroad, the wealthy have many non-political reasons for wanting to venture abroad.
The ultra-wealthy also increasingly view citizenship in a country as a concentrated personal and financial risk. Just as they diversify their investments, they are now creating “passport portfolios” to cover country risk. Others want a non-US passport in case they travel to dangerous countries or regions hostile to the US.
However, the election and political climate have accelerated, adding to the push for wealthy Americans to consider a Plan B abroad. Lesperance said that for more than three decades, his American clients were primarily interested in moving abroad for tax reasons. Now it's politics and fear of violence, and next week's elections will fuel those fears.
“For some of them, the main thing is 'I don't want to live in a MAGA America,'” Lesperance said. Others are worried about violence if Donald Trump loses, or about Vice President Kamala Harris's plan to tax unrealized capital gains for those worth more than $100 million. While fiscal analysts say the unrealized gains plan has little chance of passing Congress, even with a Democratic majority, Lesperance said it remains a risk.
“Even if there is only a 3% chance of this happening, it is still a good idea to take out insurance,” he said.
Lawyers say the wealthy also cite mass school shootings, the potential for political violence, anti-Semitism, Islamophobia and mounting government debts as reasons for leaving.
When it comes to destinations, Americans look primarily to Europe. According to Henley, the top countries for Americans seeking residency or second citizenship include Portugal, Malta, Greece, Spain and Antigua. Italy has also become popular with Americans.
“The love affair between Americans and Europe goes back a long time,” said Armand Arton of Arton Capital. “It comes at a price, and they're totally fine investing a few hundred thousand dollars or half a million into a property or a fund.”
However, the rules and costs are changing rapidly. While mass immigration has become a hot political issue around the world, some politicians in Europe have begun to oppose golden visas that grant the wealthy citizenship or residency based solely on investment.
Portugal, for example, faced a backlash after a flood of foreigners arrived in the Algarve and bought beach properties as part of the golden visa program. With property prices rising by 15%, the government changed the rules, increasing minimum investment thresholds and removing residential property as an investment category.
This summer, Italy doubled its flat tax on the foreign income of wealthy foreigners who transfer their tax residency to Italy, to 200,000 euros ($217,000). The change followed a wave of wealthy new immigrants coming to participate in the program and driving up property prices in Milan.
For now, Malta remains the second go-to passport for wealthy Americans. Although expensive, between $1 million and $1.2 million in total, Malta's citizenship by investment program offers citizenship and unrestricted travel and residence in Malta and, by extension, the European Union, according to immigration lawyers. The EU has been challenging Malta's program in court, but most immigration lawyers expect the country to prevail.
The Caribbean is increasingly popular for Americans who simply want a second passport. Buying an approved property in Antigua and Barbuda for more than $300,000 puts you on the path to citizenship, allowing you to travel freely to Hong Kong, Russia, Singapore, the United Kingdom and Europe, among other countries. Saint Lucia is also increasingly popular, lawyers say.
Americans with ancestry in Ireland, Italy and dozens of other countries can apply for so-called lineage citizenship, which is typically much cheaper than an investment visa. Some countries, such as Portugal, also offer retirement visas, which allow entry and a path to citizenship.
Don't expect to obtain citizenship or residency right away. With attorneys and countries inundated with so many applications and so many different background checks and approvals required, the process can take months or even a year or more. And that waiting list could lengthen depending on the election results.
“It's getting crowded,” Lesperance said. “And I'm sure I'll get many more on November 6 or 7.”