U.Today – September is considered one of the worst months for the cryptocurrency market and in particular. The average BTC return is -6.18% and the median is -4.43%. Historical trends are rarely reliable for cryptocurrencies, but considering the fact that Bitcoin is a $1.2 trillion asset with over 11 years of trading on the exchange, its price history is something we can rely on.
However, Spot On Chain experts refuse to accept the high probability of a negative September and offer five key reasons why this time could be different for BTC.
Interestingly, one of the main arguments is based on historical patterns that are not always relevant. Thus, Spot On Chain points out that almost 43% of the years with negative Augusts have been followed by positive Septembers. This suggests that the market could experience a rebound, despite the usual negative sentiment.
Sellers go out, holders come in
Another important factor is that key players have been selling less recently. The German government, Mt. Gox, and Genesis Trading have already sold a large amount of Bitcoin, with their combined sales reaching over 170,000 BTC in July and August.
It is also worth mentioning that the US government still holds over 203,000 BTC, but has been cautious in its recent moves, opting for over-the-counter sales that minimize the impact on the market. This reduction in selling pressure could help keep the market stable.
Additionally, long-term holders remain strong, adding 262,000 BTC to their positions in August. These holders now control 75% of the total supply, indicating confidence in the asset’s future. Major anonymous wallets, which hold significant amounts of Bitcoin, have also remained dormant, further reducing the likelihood of sudden sell-offs.
Bitcoin ETF inflows expected
There is also the possibility of a new wave of investment in Bitcoin ETFs, which reinforces the bullish argument. After a slight drop in net flows in August, September could see a positive inflow of between $500 million and $1.5 billion, based on historical patterns of alternating positive and negative months.
There are other things that could also affect the market. With the Federal Reserve potentially lowering interest rates and FTX paying out $16 billion in cash, there could be increased demand for Bitcoin. Also, growing political support for crypto-friendly regulations in the US could build more confidence among investors and give Bitcoin another boost this September.
This article was originally published on U.Today
